Alright, everyone, Oscar weekend is here. And while I’m a little late on the prediction bandwagon, I wanted to give my thoughts before Seth MacFarlane takes the stage on Sunday night.
I’m only offering predictions in the major categories — picture, director and acting. It’s been hard enough to carve out the time just to do this, let alone try to predict every category. And really, if I had to sit here predicting sound mixing, I think I would go insane.
Also, I should offer a caveat that I have seen all of the nominated pictures below with the exception of Amour. There wasn’t a screening I could make before it was released and, once it hit Ann Arbor, there just wasn’t a convenient time to break away and see it.
But I’ve seen the films that are considered the front-runners, and below you’ll find my thoughts on what I think will win, which nominees I think should win and which movies and performances were unjustly overlooked by the Academy.
Best Picture:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Had you asked me around the end of the year, I’d say that Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty were the frontrunners. But there’s a bit of a Silver Linings backlash and Zero Dark Thirty seems to have lost some of the critical momentum it had out of the gate. Lincoln is definitely the kind of historical epic the Academy likes to recognize, and the intelligent political drama is generally agreed to be Spielberg’s best film in years. But the big surprise is that Argo – originally predicted to be an also-ran because of the lack of a nomination for director Ben Affleck — has utterly dominated recent awards. It’s an audience success as well as a critical one. And if there’s anything Hollywood likes more than prestigious historical dramas, it’s movies about movies. And Argo is a historical drama about how movies saved lives. My prediction is that Argo is the Best Picture winner.
Should Win: This is a surprisingly strong list of nominees this year. I’ll have no problem if Argo wins — it’s extremely entertaining and perfectly assembled. Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty are both fantastic movies that I think are a shade better than Argo. I really enjoy Silver Linings Playbook, but think it’s more of an acting triumph (and there are a few tonal shifts that, on second viewing, didn’t really work). Les Miserables worked for me as spectacular entertainment, but it’s mainly because the emotion trumped some very obvious flaws. If only the second act of Life of Pi was nominated, I’d be happy, but its bookends are so terribly wrought that they really ruined the film for me. And I haven’t seen Amour, as I said. But really, the more I think about it, the more I really love Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained. I know I was cool to it on my first impression, but a second viewing really impressed me. It’s funny, exciting, brutal and incredibly subversive. It’s a bold, exciting and dangerous movie that is so wonderfully put together from beginning to end.
Hey, what about?: My number one film of 2012 was shut out of the nominations this year. But Sarah Polley’s beautiful and heartbreaking Take This Waltz was a film that knocked me on my butt. Because I don’t want it to dominate this list, I’ll just point out here that star Michelle Williams and supporting actress Sarah Silverman should also have been recognized for their work in this film.
Best Director
Michael Haneke — Amour
Ang Lee — Life of Pi
David O. Russell — Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg — Lincoln
Behn Zietlin — Beasts of the Southern Wild
Will win: I think Haneke’s a bit too depressing for voters and, like I said, I think Silver Linings is more of an actor’s movie than anything. Behn Zietlin’s debut film is beautiful, even more so when you realize what he accomplished on a nonexistent budget, but I think Beasts is a tad too small for the Academy to go for. A lot of people–including myself–really love Ang Lee, but Life of Pi’s flaws stem from the way the bookends bungle the entire film…something it would have been Lee’s responsibility to see (but there’s enough goodwill for him that it’s possibly he could squeak). Still, I think Steven Spielberg will walk away with his third directorial Oscar. . .
Should win: … Which is kind of odd at first blush, seeing as the biggest contribution to Lincoln’s success is that Spielberg got out of his own way. Instead of delivering the emotional and overwrought biography I think many of expected, he tightened the focus on a small period of Abraham Lincoln’s life and relies mainly on Tony Kuschner’s wonderful screenplay and fantastic work from his cast to make the film work. For a major talent like Spielberg, it couldn’t have been easy to restrain himself that much. And it’s why Spielberg should be the winner.
What about: It’s an old story by now, but it’s baffling that Argo and Zero Dark Thirty were nominated for Best Picture but the films’ directors Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow were shut out of this category. Yes, it happens every year (see also the snub for Tarantino and Django), but the omission of these two is particularly confounding, as both films are successful mainly because of impeccable direction. Argo wouldn’t work without Affleck successfully moderating tension and tone, and Zero Dark Thirty would be a totally different (and worse) movie without Bigelow’s touch to make it feel so true-to-life without sacrificing dramatic tension.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper — Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis — Lincoln
Hugh Jackman — Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix — The Master
Denzel Washington — Flight
Will win: Listen, everyone was great in this category. Cooper showed a talent I never suspected existed, Washington continued to prove himself adept at playing charming scumbags and Jackman packed so much emotion into his role as Jean Valjean, all while carrying a tune. Joaquin Phoenix is amazing in The Master, but Oscar voters like people who take the awards seriously, and Phoenix bad-mouthed the process early on. And really, none of these people are Daniel Day-Lewis, who delivers a Lincoln that some reviewers thought was “more Lincoln than Lincoln.”
Should win: Split the vote between Phoenix and Day-Lewis, because I really can’t decide. Contorting his body and face so it looks like it hurts just to exist, Phoenix is the most memorable thing about The Master. But Day-Lewis is so funny, charming, noble and surprisingly soft-spoken as Abraham Lincoln that he does the impossible–makes a larger-than-life icon feel like a real, likable person. Both performances are so great that I don’t see how anyone can choose.
Hey, what about: I’ve really cooled on The Sessions, but John Hawkes’ work as a man in an iron lung looking to get laid still sticks with me. It’s funny and vulnerable work that’s unfortunately undercut by the film’s direction, and it’s the latest in what seem to be annually great performances by Hawkes.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain — Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence — Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva — Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis — Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts — The Impossible
Will win: It’s tempting to think that the Academy will reward either Riva or Wallis, as they’re both the oldest and youngest nominees ever, respectively (I can’t comment on Riva, but Wallis delivers one of the best child performances I’ve ever seen in Beast). I think The Impossible never gained traction it needed to recognize Watts, and if they weren’t going to award Chastain for Take Shelter last year, they’re probably not going to do it for a more traditional performance in Zero Dark Thirty. Besides, people love Jennifer Lawrence. And she’s really good in Silver Linings Playbook. She’s the winner.
Should win: Watts does gut-wrenching work in The Impossible, a role so physically and emotionally draining that maybe they should give her the award just to comfort her. I’ve already said how much I adored Wallis, and I think Chastain’s been under-praised for how strong she is in Zero Dark Thirty–it’s a more complex performance than many recognize. But have I mentioned Jennifer Lawrence is really good in Silver Linings Playbook? She’s fantastic. She’s been knocking it out of the park since Winter’s Bone, and here she shows a neurotic, funny, sexy side to compliment the tough-chick persona she already has. It’s great work and this is her moment.
Hey, What About: I wasn’t as big of a fan of Rust and Bone as others were, but I do think Marion Cotillard did great work as a woman learning to heal and love again after the loss of her legs. She plays a person broken on the inside and out who doesn’t just heal but learns the value of respecting herself and demanding that respect from others.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin — Argo
Robert Deniro — Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman — The Master
Tommy Lee Jones — Lincoln
Christoph Waltz — Django Unchained
Will Win: This is a tough one, as it’s a parade of great veterans, all of whom the Academy loves. I think Hoffman’s work will be overshadowed by Phoenix’s, though, and Arkin and Jones are doing things a little too similar to what they’ve done in the past. Waltz is really good in Django, but I think that some may also think it’s a little too close to what he did in Inglourious Basterds for their liking. But Robert Deniro is a Hollywood icon. It’s been ages since he’s appeared invested in a performance and, like everyone else, he’s really good in Silver Linings.
Should win: Remember when I said Waltz’s work is a little too close to his role as Hans Landa? That’s actually a misconception. What he does as Dr. King Schultz is put on many of the same airs–he’s charming, with a flair for the dramatic–but there’s a goodness about him that isn’t present in Basterds. And Waltz does a fantastic job capturing Schultz’s growing disgust for the slave trade, which erupts into violence during the film’s end. It’s remarkable work that looks much easier than it is, and it’s one of my favorites this year.
Hey, what about: Take your pick from Waltz’s Django cohorts. Leonardo DiCaprio is having the time of his life being a scuzzy racist pig, and Samuel L. Jackson is terrifying as the head house slave and the film’s true villain. Both sink their teeth into the marvelously depraved characters Tarantino’s written for them, and they both deliver their strongest performances in years in this film.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams — The Master
Sally Field — Lincoln
Anne Hathaway — Les Miserables
Helen Hunt — The Sessions
Jacki Weaver — Silver Linings Playbook
Will win: There’s one thing that even Les Miserables’ haters seem to agree on: the moment Hathaway belts out “I Dreamed a Dream” with all the self-pity, rage, disgust and pain she can muster is the film’s highlight. This is Anne Hathaway’s to lose.
Should win: Hathaway. That moment is so good, so powerful. It’s the moment you can see a star earning their award. I liked Adams in The Master–she’s one of my favorite working actresses–but the film never knows what to do with her. Field’s great in Lincoln, and one more scene to flesh her character out a bit more could have swayed me. Weaver is fine in Silver Linings, but she’s fairly inconsequential to the rest of the film. And Helen Hunt’s perfectly adequate in The Sessions, but really the nomination only comes because it’s considered brave to spend most of a film naked.
Hey, what about?: The Perks of Being a Wallflower is a movie I adored and that only gets better in my mind the more I think about it. Emma Watson’s work as a scarred, troubled teenager is smart, funny and enthralling. If there’s any question that she has a career beyond Hermione Granger, this answers it.
So those are my picks. I know I mused about keeping a live blog here but, honestly, that’s just too tedious. But given that Sundays are a day off Lent requirements (I gave up Facebook and Twitter this year), I’ll be tweeting through the Oscars at @CDubbs727 if you want to join me!
